Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.