A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
